HN 提问：有对冲基金在其投资组合中纳入体育博彩吗？
2 分•作者: JumpinJack_Cash•3 个月前
我注意到 HN 对体育博彩存在强烈的偏见，所以在你们指责我之前，请考虑一下体育博彩在你可以进行的各种金融博彩中独一无二的特性。
1) 这是唯一一个你不需要共识来巩固你的立场就能赚钱的领域。事实上，你希望共识在你下注的立场上不会巩固，直到比赛结束，你的预测成真。
2) 然而，得益于预测市场（以及像 Betfair 这样的已知博彩交易所和庞大的亚洲市场），体育博彩也可以具有流动性，这意味着你也可以从共识巩固你的投注中获利。
3) 市场可以比你保持偿付能力更长时间地保持非理性，这是投资中反复出现的主题。但对于体育博彩，市场有一个硬性截止日期来解决并恢复理性，这与普通市场不同，普通市场可以永远保持非理性，因为一旦一个叙事失去吸引力，公众就会被另一个叙事所吸引。
4) 超高净值人士倾向于聚集在一起，因此对冲基金的投资者和管理者可以接触到实际参与比赛并决定比赛结果的
查看原文
I notice that HN has a super anti sports bet bias so before you jump me considerate the uniqueness of sports bets in the vast landscape of financial bets one can make.<p>1) It's the only field in which you don't need the consensus to solidify around your position in order to make money, as a matter of fact you HOPE that the consensus doesn't solidify around your position until the gameclock reaches 0:00 and your prediction becomes true.<p>2) Thanks to prediction markets though (and the already known betting exchanges such as Betfair and the huge landscape of Asian ones), a sport bet can also be liquid meaning that you can also profit from consensus solidifying around your bet.<p>3) The market can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent, that is a recurrent theme in investing but with sports bets you have a hard deadline for the market to resolve and gain its rationality back as opposed to the normal markets which can stay irrational forever because the public can be captured by yet another narrative once one loses steam.<p>4) UHNWI tend to hangout together so the investors and the administrators of a hedge fund could have access to the actual players deciding the outcome of games and thus they could accurately judge their mental and physical form and if needed be they could also persuade them to make a determinate result happen..<p>What do you guys think? Why hasn't this sort of fund develop yet ? At least publicly?<p>Do you think hedge fund already incorporate sports bets in their portfolio but they do it in secret?