我们问对问题了吗？
3 分•作者: redipascov•9 天前
随着人工智能的进步以我曾认为不可持续的速度发展，我看到科技行业的人们分为以下两类：
- 狂热者，他们非常高兴看到“推理”成为一种商品，并认为他们终于能够治愈自己的自卑情结。
- 批评者，他们试图通过强调人工智能的局限性来应对当前形势。
当然，还有许多子类别，但这些是我注意到的主要类别。
我不明白的是为什么讨论没有更深入。人工智能不需要那么强大就能颠覆我们的社会和日常生活，根据我的经验，我的直觉告诉我，我们已经过了基于 Fable 的临界点。即使是 Opus，如果使用得当也绰绰有余，Fable 只是让将模糊的需求/想法转化为可交付成果变得更加简单。
现在，我知道像 Fable 这样的技术要部署到整个经济并解决大多数知识工作者得以保住工作和获得薪水的低效率问题，还有很多障碍，但潘多拉的盒子已经打开，而且已经打开了一段时间。
经济力量将是残酷的，因为那些更快采用新技术的公司与那些落后的公司之间的差距将越来越大。
那些认为自己的优势在于优化人工智能工作流程的工程师们将面临严峻的现实，因为随着工具的改进以及一切对用户变得透明，他们的优势将不复存在。看看 Claude Code 等工具，在短短 12 个月内我们的体验发生了多大的变化。
总而言之：我惊讶地发现，关于我们即将到来的未来以及人们如今欣喜若狂的优势将在几年内迅速消失的在线讨论如此之少。有些职业会比其他职业更安全，但我们是否准备好迎接我们即将到来的转变？
我主要担心的是社会层面。当然，社会可能不会崩溃，但我们是否正盲目地走向一个我们都未准备好的转变？我很想听听其他对此有所思考的人的意见。
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As AI advancements continue at a pace I believed to be unsustainable up until not long ago, I see folks in the tech industry falling in one of these two groups:<p>- hypers, extremely happy to see "reasoning" becoming a commodity and thinking that they'll finally be able to heal their inferiority complex
- detractors, trying to cope with the current situation by highlighting the limitation of AI<p>There's many sub categories of course, but those are the main ones I notice.<p>What I can't understand is why the discussion doesn't go deeper. We don't need AI to be that great for it to disrupt our societies and daily lives, my gut feeling tells me that we already passed the tipping point with Fable based on my experience. Hell, even Opus is more than enough if used correctly, Fable just made it even simpler to translate vague requirements/ideas into something that's shippable.<p>Now, I know that there's plenty of obstacles towards a technology like Fable to be deployed across the entire economy and solve all inefficiencies that allow most of us knowledge workers to have a job and a salary, but Pandora's box is open, and it's been open for a while.<p>The economical forces will be brutal as the gap between companies adopting new technologies faster and those lagging behind becomes wider and wider.<p>Engineers believing that their edge lies in optimized AI workflows will get a rude awakening as harnesses improve and everything becomes transparent to users, look at tools like Claude Code and how much our experience changed in just 12 months.<p>TL;DR: I'm surprised to find so few conversations online about our impending future and how the edge that people are euphoric about these days will quickly disappear in a matter of years. Some professions will be safer than others, but are we ready for the transition that's upon us?<p>I'm mostly worried on a societal level. Sure, society likely won't collapse, but are we walking blindly into a shift that none of us is ready for? I'd be interested to hear opinions from others that have been thinking about this.