HN 提问:我们是否见证了 AI 的“三位一体时刻”?
4 分•作者: vld_chk•11 天前
我不知道是不是只有我这么觉得,但昨天美国决定禁止访问 Fable 模型,感觉像是“AI 竞赛”中的一个划时代转变,其规模堪比“三位一体”核试验。
昨天有多少事情值得关注,很难一一列举:
政府关闭一个它不喜欢的 AI 模型?政府撤销一家几乎不盈利的万亿美元初创公司数十亿美元的收入,而这家公司的整个发展轨迹,乃至生存,都依赖于该模型的商业成功?AI 模型的访问权将由公民身份决定,并且很可能需要通过严格的身份验证?
想象一下,下周模型重新可用。我们还能信任它吗?或者信任 Anthropic 为了遵守美国的要求而进行的修改吗?很可能不能。我们能相信美国政府不会为了自己的网络安全行动而访问不受限制的模型吗?很可能也不能。
毫无疑问,中国也将开始效仿。我们已经看到中国公司在慢慢减少其开放性,并且有传言称这种趋势将继续下去。现在我们可以预料到,中国公司将开始发布删减版模型,或者根据国籍或地点限制访问。
感觉就像美国政府昨天打开了潘多拉的盒子,将我们推入了武器化 AI 竞赛的领域,伴随着更多的限制、控制和访问监管。即使最终这一切只是 Anthropic 的另一个 TACO 故事或“营销活动”,造成的损害也很难被挽回。
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I don’t know if it’s just me, but yesterday’s US decision to ban access to the Fable model feels like an epochal shift in the “AI race,” something on the scale of the Trinity test.<p>It is hard to count how many boxes were ticked yesterday:<p>A government shutting down an AI model it doesn’t like? A government revoking tens of billions of dollars in revenue from a barely profitable $1T startup whose entire trajectory, and in essence its survival, depends on the commercial success of that model? Access to an AI model being governed by citizenship, likely verified through rigorous ID checks?<p>Imagine that the model is made available again next week. Can we trust it, or trust the changes imposed by Anthropic to comply with the US? Likely not. Can we trust that the US government will not have access to the non-restricted model for its own cybersecurity operations? Likely not.<p>There is little doubt that China will start to follow suit. We already see Chinese companies slowly scaling back their openness, and there are rumors that this trend will continue. Now we can expect Chinese companies to start releasing redacted models or limiting access based on nationality or location.<p>It feels like the US government opened Pandora’s box yesterday and pushed us into the territory of a weaponized AI race, with more restrictions, control, and regulation of access. Even if, in the end, this is all another TACO story or a “marketing campaign” from Anthropic, the damage is very unlikely to be undone.