Ask HN：是什么让 AI 成为泡沫？
2 分•作者: atleastoptimal•3 个月前
很多人似乎都认为，人工智能泡沫终将“破裂”，导致人工智能公司从目前的峰值大规模贬值。
但我感到困惑的是，是什么导致了目前的人工智能估值成为泡沫。
泡沫通常存在于未来投机超过生产力的时候：最终，某种现实会让市场不再相信这种未来投机，从而导致贬值，进而引发大规模抛售。
然而，目前的人工智能公司拥有非常高的收入，并且增长极快。它们的估值是由实际的商业活动支撑的。我无法想象存在任何泡沫的空间，因为市场现状以及对人工智能的高需求原因都非常清楚。
现在，某些特定的公司我能想象它们会损失大量的估值，但这仅仅取决于它们在市场中扮演中间人的角色，而底层人工智能模型的改进将解决这个问题，这可能只会意味着前沿实验室获得更多收入，因此泡沫产生的理由就更少了。
查看原文
A lot of people seem to take it as a given that the AI bubble will "pop", leading to a mass devaluation of AI companies from their current peaks.<p>What I'm confused about though is what makes current AI evaluations a bubble.<p>Bubbles usually exists when future speculation outpaces productivity: eventually some realization leads the market to no longer believe in that future speculation, causing devaluation which triggers a mass sell-off.<p>However, AI companies currently have very high revenues and are growing extremely fast. Their valuation is backed by actual commerce. I can't imagine that there is any room for a bubble, as it is very clear where the market is at, and why demand for AI is so high.<p>Now, certain specific companies I can imagine losing a lot of valuation, but only contingent on the fact that they serve a middle-man role in the market that improvements in the underlying AI models will solve, which would likely only mean more revenue for the frontier labs, and thus less reason for a bubble.