Gartner 炒作周期描述的是一种例外，而非规律。
2 分•作者: cadabrabra•1 天前
人们通常会相信它们，因为他们会挑选出少数符合的周期，而忽略大量不符合的周期。Gartner 炒作周期并不能描述**所有**炒作周期。它们描述的是极少数的周期，即那些最终结出果实的周期。但和往常一样，给一个概念起个花哨的名字，人们就会开始相信它，仿佛它是什么自然规律一样。实际上，它描述的是对实际自然规律的例外。只有少数技术能够度过“幻灭的低谷”。
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People believe in them as a rule because they cherry pick the few cycles that conform and ignore the massive number of cycles that don’t conform. Gartner hype cycles don’t describe <i>every</i> hype cycle. They describe a miraculously small number of them, the ones that actually bore some fruit. But as usual, give a concept a fancy name and people will start believing in it as though it were some law of nature. In reality, it describes an exception to the actual law of nature. There are a handful of technologies that ever passed the “trough of disillusionment.”