问 HN：有人认为人形机器人是个泡沫吗？
3 分•作者: NewUser76312•6 个月前
我特别指的是这些公司一直在推动的，关于利用研究和情报来实现通用和专业物理劳动的愿景。
我完全接受在可靠的硬件上拥有良好的远程呈现，这可能对我们的经济有价值。如今，硬件确实变得越来越好了，可以承载有用的负载。
但我尤其感到悲观的是，看到学术类型的研究试图用类似人类的系统来叠衣服、把螺丝拧进孔里，然后筹集数千万美元，并以此成立一家公司。对于现有人形机器人也是如此。
其中一家主要的人形机器人公司（你可以谷歌/猜测是谁）最近声称，他们的人形机器人将在 5 年内在医院里进行手术？这简直是离谱，在进行手术时，它绝对不可能成为首选平台，而更可能选择专门为这些任务而设计的、配备多臂平台的专用床。这甚至可能比《杰森一家》里的罗茜在 Roomba 发明之前就打扫我们的家还要糟糕。
再举一个例子，我不得不具体说明——https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlUFoZstcWg 但我想知道，假设这项任务要重复数千次，这怎么可能比为这项任务设置机械臂更好呢？改变工厂布局是使其值得的主要问题吗？即使是这样……一个安装在移动平台上的单臂机器人肯定能更经济地完成这项任务。
总之，我看到了所有这些东西，有大量的资金、炒作和乐观情绪，而我感到很疯狂，因为我通常是技术乐观主义者，却变得悲观。那么，其他人也有类似的感觉吗？我是否遗漏了什么，也许可以激发一些乐观情绪？
期待讨论。
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In particular, I mean the research and intelligence vision these companies have been pushing for doing general and specialized physical labor.<p>I'm completely open to the possibility of having good telepresence in reliable hardware be a valuable addition to our economies. The hardware really is getting good these days, at useful payloads.<p>But what I'm particularly pessimistic about is seeing academic-type research try to fold clothes and put screws into holes with humanoid-like systems, raise 10s of $Mils, and form a company out of it. Ditto for existing humanoids.<p>One of the major humanoid companies (you can google/guess who) recently claimed that their humanoids will be doing surgeries in hospitals within 5 years? This is egregious, there is zero chance that becomes the platform of choice for doing surgery, over a special purpose-built bed + multi-arm platform specialized for said tasks. This is perhaps even worse that Rosie from the Jetsons vacuuming our homes before the Roomba is invented.<p>Showing another example, I have to get into specifics - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlUFoZstcWg But I want to know, how could this possibly be better than setting up arms for this task, assuming it is to be done thousands of times? Is the change to the factory layout the main issue that makes this worth it? Even if it is... a single arm on a mobile platform certainly does this more economically.<p>Anyways, I see all this stuff, there's tons of money and hype and optimism, and I feel crazy being pessimistic, as I'm usually the techno optimist. So, do others feel similarly? Are there things I'm missing that could fuel some optimism perhaps?<p>Looking forward to the discussion.