问 HN：你害怕在未来几年内被 AI 淘汰吗？
4 分•作者: johnwheeler•6 个月前
在Hacker News和Twitter上，普遍的看法是没人害怕。人们承认初级工程师和研究生可能会受到最大影响。但他们似乎仍然认为自己的处境是可持续的。我的问题是，这仅仅是人们的一厢情愿和人性使然，试图对抗不可避免的趋势吗？我之所以这么问，是因为我真的看不到未来还有一大批程序员。我看到的是程序员大规模失业。人们都在否认这一点，而且一旦一个AI可能一夜之间发布，就能写出完美的代码，所有关于AI无法在不出错的情况下编写代码的说法都将不再成立。Claude 4.5就是一个很好的例子。我真的看不到任何有力的论据能证明这项技术不会发展到让程序员这个职业变得无关紧要，不是无关紧要，而是彻底改变经济模式的地步。
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On Hacker News and Twitter, the consensus view is that no one is afraid. People concede that junior engineers and grad students might be the most affected. But, they still seem to hold on to their situations as being sustainable. My question is, is this just a part of wishful thinking and human nature, trying to combat the inevitable? The reason I ask is because I seriously don't see a future where there's a bunch of programmers anymore. I see mass unemployment for programmers. People are in denial, and all of these claims that the AI can't write code without making mistakes are no longer valid once an AI is released potentially overnight, that writes flawless code. Claude 4.5 is a good example. I just really don't see any valid arguments that the technology is not going to get to a point where it makes the job irrelevant, not irrelevant, but completely changes the economics.