印度板球队遭遇了20连败，输掉掷硬币的概率是百万分之一。
1 分•作者: newyankee•7 个月前
考虑到我们对某些事件赋予的概率几乎为零，但它永远不会是0，并且可能在重要事件中产生灾难性影响，我觉得这很有启发性。
印度是一个板球运动几乎等同于宗教的国家，而板球运动中掷硬币的结果可能非常重要，有时几乎是决定性因素。看到这种低概率事件发生在他们的一日国际板球赛（ODI）球队身上，真是令人啼笑皆非。更可笑的是，第一次输掉掷硬币是在他们的本土世界杯决赛中，他们在赢得了所有联赛比赛并保持不败的情况下输给了澳大利亚。
虽然这里的后果主要是让一些热情的球迷心碎，而且通常无害，但我想知道有多少历史事件的发生频率明显低于人们的预期，并且有明确的记载。
据我所知，飓风哈维是一场500年一遇的事件，对休斯顿的钢筋水泥丛林造成的影响比任何规划者想象的都要严重。而一场500年一遇的地震就可能对美国西海岸产生重大影响。
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Given how we assign almost non existent probabilities to certain events but it is never 0 and can have catastrophic impacts in important events I found this quite illuminating.<p>India is a country where cricket is almost religion, and cricket is a sport where toss can be very important, sometimes almost deciding factor. It is funny to see such a low probability event happening with its one day international (ODI) cricket team. What is even funny is that the first toss loss was the final of their home world cup which they lost to Australia after winning all league matches and going into it undefeated.<p>While the outcome here is mostly heartbreak of some passionate fans and otherwise harmless, I wonder how many historical events have happened and are clearly documented to have been much rarer than one can expect.<p>As far as I remember Hurricane Harvey was a 1 in 500 year event impacting the concrete jungle of Houston much worse than any of the planners could've imagined. All it might take is a 1 in 500 year earthquake to signficantly impact US west coast.