Ask HN：V 神说量子计算可能会在 2028 年前攻破 ECC 加密，这太疯狂了吧？
4 分•作者: jMyles•7 个月前
量子计算机甚至还没能分解一个三位数，对吧？我手头没有离散对数问题的等效解，但是……即使它们不知怎么（？？！）获得了 Shor 算法所需的 4 个数量级的空间计算能力，仍然存在诸如纠错和冷却等尚未解决的重大难题，对吧？
或者，量子计算领域最近有什么惊天动地的进展，使得这在某种程度上成为可能？
在发布此内容之前，我复习了一些最近的、相关的、重要的讨论：
* Willow 公告：https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367649
* Majorana 1 公告：https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071
* OpenSSH 声明：https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863242
* 反对谷歌“量子霸权”主张的案例：https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384768
编辑：我想说的是，我非常喜欢 Vitalik，我认为他拥有美丽而友善的头脑和心灵；我少数几次和他一起玩的时候，他都非常酷。这并不是一篇反 Vitalik 的帖子。更像是一篇“我们现在在量子计算的哪个阶段”的帖子，我认为这里的一些人可以用相当简单的术语来总结。
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Quantum computers haven't even factored a three-digit number yet, right? I don't have handy the equivalent in discrete log solution, but... even if somehow (??!) they gain the 4+ orders of magnitude for Shor's space computation, there remain major unsolved boring problems like error correction and cooling, right?<p>Or have there been some galaxy-shaking developments in QC that actually make this somehow plausible?<p>Some recent, relevant, major discussions I brushed-up on before posting this:<p>* Willow announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367649<p>* Majorana 1 announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071<p>* OpenSSH statement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863242<p>* The case against Google's claims of "quantum supremacy": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384768<p>edit: I do want to say, I like Vitalik a lot and I think he has a beautiful and friendly brain and heart; the few times I hung with him he has been cool as heck. This is not an anti-Vitalik post. More of a "where are we really in QC" post, which I figure some people here can summarize in fairly simple terms.