LLM 经济学单元：回应 Ed Zitron 的《AI 是个烧钱陷阱》
3 分•作者: tudorizer•9 个月前
大量的关注都集中在巨额的融资轮、投入到训练基础模型中的现金（Sam A. 提到的数万亿美元），而没有足够的分析师解释用于理解一个企业的经济学单位。
如果你想知道为什么投资者仍然认为把钱投进去是个好主意，我尝试分解了经济学单位和长期潜力，以及这一切如何能够说得通。
部分 TL;DR
- 现金消耗并不能准确地代表销货成本（COGS）。OpenAI 主要像制药公司一样，将资金用于研发。
- ChatGPT 4o 的毛利率可能超过 12.8%。
- ChatGPT OSS 120B 的毛利率可能达到 89%。它比 4o-mini 便宜 90%，推理能力相当，推理速度快 3 倍。
- ChatGPT 5 的毛利率很可能在 12.8% 到 89% 之间。
完整分解：https://medium.com/@brenoca/openais-road-to-profitability-8c7231f8494b
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A lot of attention is aimed at the huge investment rounds, cash burned into training foundation models (the trillions mentioned by Sam A.) and not enough analysts explain the units of economics to understand a business.<p>If you wonder why investors still think it’s a good idea to part with their money, I tried to break down the economic units and long term potential how all this could make sense.<p>Partial TL;DR<p>- Cash burn is not a fair approximation for COGS. OpenAI spends mostly on R&D like a pharmaceutical company does.
- ChatGPT 4o could be making more than 12.8% in gross margin.
- ChatGPT OSS 120B could be making 89% gross margin. It is 90% cheaper than
4o-mini with equivalent reasoning and 3x faster inference.
- ChatGPT 5's gross margin is most likely to fall between 12.8% and 89%.<p>Full breakdown: https://medium.com/@brenoca/openais-road-to-profitability-8c7231f8494b