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我正在寻找真实的答案，并希望了解投资者的思考过程。请尽量不要用“VC都是傻瓜”来回答，除非你真的不得不这么说。 Cognition AI，也就是“Devin”的开发者，最近收购了Windsurf，并以100亿美元的估值完成了融资[1]。这个估值与Cursor大致相同，后者是全球增长最快的AI消费级应用，年经常性收入（ARR）达到5亿美元，深受许多程序员喜爱。与此同时，Devin一经推出就陷入争议，并且持续面临负面评价。我认识的人都没用过它，似乎是面向企业级市场，并且只宣布了与少数几家公司达成了合作。这让我觉得他们可能没有5亿美元的ARR，或者远远达不到这个数字。他们没有机器学习的背景，只雇佣竞赛程序员。那么，他们是如何以远高于该领域其他公司，且业绩记录远不如他们的估值完成融资的呢？难道他们在幕后有什么惊人的实力吗？对于投资者来说，他们希望如何收回投资？谷歌或其他公司有可能以100亿美元、200亿美元甚至50亿美元的价格收购Cognition吗？在这些情况下，是否有强有力的条款来保护投资者？他们怎么可能不亏损一大笔钱呢？ [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/cognition-cinches-about-500-million-to-advance-ai-code-generation-business-f65f71a9

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I'm looking for real answers and to understand the thought process particularly of investors. Please try not to answer with "VCs are idiots", unless you absolutely must.<p>Cognition AI, the makers of "Devin" and recent acquirers of Windsurf, raised recently at a $10B valuation [1]. This is about the same valuation as Cursor, which is the fastest growing AI consumer app in the world, with $500MM ARR, beloved by many programmers.<p>Meanwhile Devin launched with an immediate scandal and continues to have poor reputation. It is not used by anyone I know, seems to be targeted at enterprise, and has announced a single-digit number of deals with companies. Something makes me think they probably do not have $500MM ARR or anywhere close. They have no background in ML, hiring only contest programmers. So how are they raising at much higher valuations than any other company in this space with much less of a track record? Is it possible they are a great behemoth behind the scenes?<p>For investors, how do they expect to make their money back? Could Google or some other company buy Cognition at $10B, or $20B, or even $5B? Are there strong clauses that protect investors in these situations? How can they possibly not lose a bunch of money here?<p>[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/cognition-cinches-about-500-million-to-advance-ai-code-generation-business-f65f71a9

Ask HN: Cognition 凭什么能融资到 100 亿美元？