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经济学是一个奇怪的领域，它自诩为量化和科学，却又饱受准意识形态的困扰。我的高等教育背景是经济学。传统观点认为，技术和生产力的提高会增加经济产出，从而随着时间的推移提高实际工资，因为工人们可以分享不断增长的蛋糕。但在一个消费驱动的经济体中，当技术和自动化使资本持有者能够获得越来越大的蛋糕份额时，会发生什么？因为为了满足消费者的需求，他们每生产一个单位的产品只需要越来越少的人力？传统的答案是服务业扩张。但当同样的事情也发生在服务业，甚至像遛狗这样的事情也越来越多地由像Wag这样的应用程序巨头提供时，会发生什么？是否存在这样一个临界点：一个经济体在后勤上可以满足需求，但由于工人过剩以及生产要素的集中，生产要素掌握在越来越少的人手中，它无法通过工资收入有效地分配其产出以供消费？如果其他国家的工人的工资构成了我们消费品的大部分，而我们的购买力仅仅依靠我们货币逐渐衰弱的力量来支撑，那又会怎样呢？就我个人而言，我认为我们有几种可能的未来。一种是基于地方苏维埃的民主社会主义，辅以普遍基本收入（UBI）。另一种是内爆和内乱。还有一种是未知的。第一种不太可能实现，因为人们已经接受了一个过渡性的自由主义经济资本主义制度，而这个制度的效率仅仅是由于19世纪的工业革命。 ChatGPT、YouTube上人们不喜欢的关于灰指甲的广告，以及Facebook的点赞，都无法支撑一个经济体。我认为最有可能的结果是内乱和战争，因为旧的制度将因其自身的重量而崩溃。也许到那时，我们终于可以回归到农村农业共产主义或狩猎和采集，这更适合人类，就像我们在数千年来一直安居乐业一样。你认为呢？

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Economics is a strange field purpoting to be quantitative and scientific but beset by quasi ideologies.My higher education background is in Economics.Traditionally it is held that increasing technology and productivity increases economic output resulting in growing real wages over time as workers take their slice of a growing pie.But what happens in a consumption driven economy when technology and automation enable capital holders to take an ever larger slice of the pie because to satisfy consumer demand they need ever fewer people in production per unit product?The traditional answer is the service economy expands.But what happens when the same thing happens in services and even things like dog walking are increasingly provided by app hawking mega corps such as Wag?Does there come a point when an economy can logistically satisfy demand but due to the surplus of workers and concentration of ownership of production factors into ever fewer hands can not distribute its production effectively through wage income to consume?What about when wage earners in other countries make the majority of our consumption goods and our purchasing power is merely buoyed by the waning strength of our currency?Personally I think we have several possible futures.One is democratic socialism with UBI based on local soviets.Another is implosion and civil strife.Another is unknown.The first one is unlikely because people have bought into a transitional liberal economic capitalist system that only was efficient due to the 19th century industrial revolution.ChatGPT, ads for toenail fungus on Youtube natue documentaries nobody wants, and Facebook likes can't power an economy.I think the most likely outcome is civil strife and war as the old ststem collapses under its own weight.Maybe then we can finally revert to rural agrarian Communism or hunting and garthering as is more appropriate for humanity and as we lived in contentment and peace for thousands of years.What do you think?

经济生产力、技术与工资增长