我们是否已停止创造值得预测的未来？
2 分•作者: squarekernels•5 个月前
罗伯特·萨波尔斯基认为一切都是注定的，但我怀疑人类的不可预测性源于我们罕见的、能够摆脱激励机制束缚的能力——即使在毫无道理的情况下，也会选择奋斗、混乱和创造性的冒险。
我们已经拥有应对气候变化、人工智能风险甚至人类长寿等生存挑战的科学技术，但似乎没有人相信未来会比现在更好。反乌托邦是默认的叙事，这种虚无主义扼杀了定义20世纪初的登月文化。我们没有在2030年构建22世纪，反而陷入了渐进主义。
轨道太阳能电站在哪里？永久的月球基地在哪里？旨在提升我们而不是安抚我们的人工智能在哪里？这些想法之所以感觉像科幻小说，仅仅是因为没有人足够疯狂去尝试。
艾伦·凯说，预测未来的最好方法是创造它。也许真正的“可计算性之幕”——我们的盲点——在于我们已经停止想象值得预测的未来。
问题：今天，新的登月文化会是什么样子——谁还足够疯狂去构建它？
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Robert Sapolsky argues that everything is deterministic, but I wonder if human unpredictability comes from our rare ability to act outside of incentive structures—choosing struggle, chaos, and creative risk even when it makes no sense.<p>We already have the science and technology to tackle existential challenges—climate change, AI risk, even human longevity—but nobody seems to believe the future will be better than the present. Dystopia is the default narrative, and this nihilism has killed the moonshot culture that defined the early 20th century. Instead of building the 22nd century in 2030, we’re stuck in incrementalism.<p>Where are the orbital solar power stations? The permanent Moon bases? The AIs designed to elevate us rather than pacify us? These ideas feel like science fiction only because no one is crazy enough to try.<p>Alan Kay said the best way to predict the future is to invent it. Maybe the real “veil of computability” - our blind spot - is that we’ve stopped imagining futures worth predicting.<p>Question: What would a new moonshot culture look like today—and who’s still crazy enough to build it?