科技衰退结束：新颖工作回归
1 分•作者: tsunamifury•9 个月前
我最近注意到了一些事情。
过去两年，大多数科技行业都处于收缩模式。我们看到了大规模裁员，对核心业务的重新侧重，以及对任何不能直接变现的事物的普遍怀疑。研发资金枯竭，“登月计划”变成了笑柄。人们变得谨慎——而且是有道理的。
但情况已经发生了变化。而且它正在悄无声息地发生，几乎是在幕后。
我们正在看到新颖性工作的回归。
不仅仅是在初创公司。也在大型科技公司。
我认为正在发生的事情是这样的：
大型科技公司正在重新招聘。不是不加选择地招聘，也不是为了重建他们刚刚裁掉的那些层级。他们正在有选择地招聘——寻找能够帮助他们探索的人。
因为一些新的东西已经打开了局面。
像 GPT-4o (o3) 这样的工具改变了地图。过去需要数月才能完成的事情——研究一个领域、运行原型、测试假设——现在可以在一周内完成。如果你积极地应用这个模型，特别是使用以新颖性为导向的提示，它不仅会成为一个生产力工具，而且会成为一个发现引擎。它缩短了从一个想法到其可行性的时间。
这种压缩很重要。它创造了战略紧迫性。
大型科技公司正在感受到这种紧迫性。当全新的机会出现时——新的用户体验范式、新的 AI 原生工作流程、新的消费者行为——仅仅优化现有的产品线是不够的。你必须先到达那里。为此，你需要那些知道如何在未定义空间中工作的人。他们不怕模糊性。他们能够横向融合想法，并交付足够多的东西来证明下一步是什么。
奇怪的是，一年前缩减了前沿研发团队的那些公司，现在正在悄悄地重建它们——因为前沿本身已经移动了。
这不仅仅是关于招聘。
我们还看到资本回流到探索性工作。AI 原生创始人再次通过叙事来融资——基于信念，而不仅仅是收入。他们这样做是因为测试时间缩短了。他们可以在一个月内探索四个产品方向，并知道哪一个有市场。这种杠杆作用将资本拉回。
所以，是的，“科技衰退”已经结束了。但这并不是旧意义上的周期重置。它不仅仅是资本的回流——而是想象力的回归。
接下来将会由那些能够快速探索、廉价失败并跨越界限进行综合的人来构建。
如果这就是你——这就是你的时代。
查看原文
I’ve been noticing something lately.<p>For the past two years, most of the tech sector has been in contraction mode. We saw layoffs across the board, a shift to core business priorities, and a general skepticism toward anything that wasn’t directly monetizable. R&D dried up. “Moonshots” became punchlines. People got cautious—and reasonably so.<p>But something has shifted. And it’s happening quietly, almost in the background.<p>We’re seeing the return of novelty work.<p>Not just in startups. In big tech.<p>Here’s what I think is going on:<p>Large tech companies are re-hiring. Not indiscriminately, and not to rebuild the same layers they just cut. They’re hiring selectively—for people who can help them explore.<p>Because something new has opened up.<p>Tools like GPT-4o (o3) have changed the map. What once required months of ramp-up—studying a domain, running prototypes, testing hypotheses—can now happen in a week. If you apply the model aggressively, especially with novelty-directed prompts, it becomes not just a productivity tool, but a discovery engine. It collapses time between an idea and its plausibility.<p>That compression matters. It creates strategic urgency.<p>Big tech is feeling that urgency. When entirely new opportunity surfaces—new UX paradigms, new AI-native workflows, new consumer behaviors—it’s not enough to optimize existing product lines. You have to get there first. And for that, you need people who know how to work in undefined spaces. Who aren’t afraid of ambiguity. Who can fuse ideas laterally and ship just enough to prove what’s next.<p>In a strange twist, the very same companies that downsized their frontier R&D teams a year ago are now quietly building them back—because the frontier itself just moved.<p>This isn’t just about hiring.<p>We’re also seeing capital return to exploratory work. AI-native founders are raising on narrative again—on conviction, not just revenue. And they’re doing it because the time-to-test has shortened. They can explore four product directions in a month and know which one has a market. That kind of leverage pulls capital back in.<p>So yes, the “tech recession” is over. But it’s not a cycle reset in the old sense. It’s not simply capital returning—it’s imagination returning.<p>What comes next will be built by those who are comfortable exploring fast, failing cheaply, and synthesizing across boundaries.<p>If that’s you—this is your time.